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Search Results 0 to 49 of about 110 (some duplicates have been removed)
obama as a modest favorite still and i should say it is not my polling what we go is look at evyone easels poll and average them together and think about the electorial college if you look at ohio still, obama is ahead in most polls of ohio he is ahead in most polls of iowa, wisconsin, and nevada as well and those four states. >> rose: by two or three points. >> two or three-point not an overwhelming margin but you can look historically and how often does a candidate who has a two or three-point lead in an election, does he how often does he convert that to a win and the answer is about 75 percent of the time. >> rose: so you said 75 percent likely obama will be elected? >> that's right because the states are what w call the tipping pot states tt would swing the electorial college margin he has a two or three-point lead, so it is not for sure but we can use statistics and data that just look up how often those lead translate into a win. > > rose: zero so is critical point here is that many people say paul, david brooks wrote a column. >> sure. >> as you know basically saying a poll
, 48-46. colorado, they have romney up by 3. 50-47. but a cnn poll has 50-48, obama. nevada, all the polls have the president lead bug it is close. same thing in wisconsin. president is ahead in all the polls except rasmussen, who has the race tied at 49. florida, all the policy out this week has obama leading romney, but very close. and in the commonwealth, up 5 points but cbs has the president up by two. north carolina, rasmussen has romney up by 6 and survey usa has the governor leading by 5. new hampshire, new england college has obama up by 6 over mitt romney. last week rasmussen had romney up by 2. and nbc has the president up by 6 points. got all that? joining us now from boston, david. he directs polling. >> he want to run it down from your point of view. you have canvassed the whole country, know what's going on. ohio, how do you see it? >> i see it really close. if you look at the last four polls, it's one point. 1 through 8 the poll was average four to five points. what we look at is the head-to-head number. the last three consecutive polls, excluding the two you menti
, then the polls would be wider in president obama's favor. >> the other thing i would point to is bill clinton was unmercifully mocked. >> and he got elected twice. >> there you go. bernie goldberg, ahead. directly ahead, senator john mccain on who will win the presidency. he has some passionate thoughts about the libya situation. and later on. bernard mcquirk forced to evacuate hit home on long gecko (clearing throat) thank you, mr. speaker, uh, members of congress. in celebration of over 75 years of our government employees insurance company, or geico...as most of you know it. ...i propose savings for everyone! i'm talking hundreds here... and furthermore.. newcaster: breaking news. the gecko is demanding free pudding. and political parties that are actual parties! with cake! and presents! ah, that was good. too bad nobody could hear me. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. >> personal story segment. there's perhaps known more qualified in the country right now to speak about the last days of a presidential campaign than senator john mccain. four ye
are overwhelmingly in one direction and it mattered, then the polls would be wider in president obama's favor. >> the other thing i would point to is bill clinton was unmercifully mocked. >> and he got elected twice. >> there you go. bernie goldberg, ahead. directly ahead, senator john mccain on who will win the presidency. he has some passionate thoughts about the libya situation. and later on. bernard mcquirk forced to evacuate hit home on long >> personal story segment. there's perhaps known more qualified in the country right now to speak about the last days of a presidential campaign than senator john mccain. four years ago he thought he would win the presidency. no he has some very strong views on what will happen tuesday night. also senator mccain is furious, furious about libya. i spoke with him last night. senator, first of all, are you surprised that the libyan story hasn't gotten much tracks 2349 media? >> i guess surprise isn't the word. i'm very, very deeply disappointed. but i guess that i'm not shocked about it. but it sure is reprehensible. >> do you think it's a protect the p
drive them to the polls on election day? even among the fervent obama supporters at this rally, this is a common theme. >> were you more excited four years ago or more excited today? >> i have to say honestly, i was more excited four years ago. >> reporter: meanwhile, fervent supporters at the romney rally often have their own nuanced motivations. are you more emotional about wanting romney to win or wanting obama to lose? >> wanting obama to lose, yes. most definitely. >> reporter: that motivates you? >> yeah. he let the whole country down. >> reporter: candidates appreciate any kind of support. but the more unconditional and enthusiastic that support is, the more likely that voter will go to the polls. and voter turnout on november 6th will be critical. romney strategists have been concerned that the perceived lack of their candidate's competitiveness could ultimately lead to less enthusiasm and therefore, a lower turnout. so the message being emphasized to the gop base is that romney can win. than makes the message from obama strategists all the more interesting. in order to
important ohio is. president obama holding a four-point lead in this new poll, slightly outside the margin of error and significantly right at the crucial 50% mark. so the question is, what is driving the numbers in ohio right now? chief national correspondent john king has some answers. >> well, anderson, that narrow ohio lead for the president is within the poll's sampling error but it is yet another poll showing the president with a small persistent lead in the state of ohio. let's take a closer look at why it is happening in this state that is so important in the pick for president. here's the main reason right here. governor romney gets the republicans. the president gets the democrats but at the moment, in our survey, the president has a narrow lead among ohio voters who define themselves as independents. that is the battleground in a big battleground state, if you win the independents you are likely to win. governor romney close but the president with an important edge among independent voters. there's also an age divide, if you look at likely voters in ohio. among voters under the
poll shows that 59% of obama voters and 58% of romney voters are very enthusiastic. but the abc news/"washington post" poll indicates obama's enthusiasm numbers were higher four years ago at 68%. while romney's numbers are considerably better than john mccain's, which were at 38% four years ago. the cheering was deafening at this large obama rally on cleveland's lakefront but many obama supporters say it feels different than four years ago. >> it's seriously just a different kind of excitement. it's more sort of tempered in like reality that this is a campaign, not a crusade. >> thank you. >> reporter: on the gop side, anti-obama sentiment remains a key component of pushing supporters to vote. much the same as four years ago. >> i think it's more important to get obama out. i do. i absolutely think it's more important to get obama out. >> reporter: clearly mitt romney and barack obama have some complicated relationships with their supporters. but no doubt neither candidate will care as long as the supporters make it to the polls. gary tuchman, cnn, cleveland. >> let's delve into the
in record numbers this year. in every poll that we have seen of latino voters, president obama is above 70%, and mitt romney does not break 23%. and you have republican pollsters saying that if mitt romney doesn't get at least 38%, something that his own campaign is saying, of the latino vote, there's no way that he can win. in 2010, people had harry reid on par with sharon engel going into election day and he ended up beating her by five to seven points, and why was that? because all of the pollsters were missing the latino support that harry reid had. and i think that that is absolutely going to be the case, especially in these southwestern states. i think you need to add at least four percentage points nationally, and in these states to president obama's numbers. i think it's going to be part of his firewall along with the women's vote. >> so amy, what should romney be focusing on? should he even reap out to latinos at this point with so little time? >> of course, he should be reaching out to all voters, and that's where he's foe cushion his message. i think it's interesting that you se
by a wide margin in the first poll. did you know that obama in the same poll won the third poll by an even larger margin. but you make a good point. as to how it was covered. with obama, it was covered like a disaster of epic proportions never before seen in politics. and it was not. you know. yes, he was not on his game. anybody can say that. this is -- as you said, you're describing romney in the third debate. he either agreed completely or threw out a word or two that looked like he looked things up on his smart phone. romney's sole plan seems to be he'll be there and not obama. no doubt america will seem stronger with a man named willard in charge. somebody did the graphic but everything he said but i'm white. >> yeah. that's pretty much it. and you know, i just want to go up to people that are thinking of voting for romney and going what if obama said i have a plan to fix the economy but i'm not going to tell you any of the details. >> stephanie: right. >> would you think we were crazy for voting for hi
polls, how many does president obama lead in? 24 of the 24. every single one. and look at the rest of mr. romney's campaign schedule. he's taking the one trip to pennsylvania that republicans always take. but other than that, he was in ohio and wisconsin today. he was scheduled to be in new hampshire, iowa and colorado in the final days. and he just spent the last couple days in florida and virginia. that means the map is not expanding. not if you can't afford to walk away from any of your battleground states to move on to more exotic locales. he is still flogging it out in the places where he has to win. where he is not sure he is going to win. all of this we're going to win stuff, it is a fake. it is a fakeout. it is a bluff. it is trash talk. and there's nothing wrong with it. it happens every year. you should just know that it is a dependable part of the end of presidential campaigns. but every once in awhile at the end of a presidential campaign, this expected feint, this attempt at a fakeout that everybody knows is coming, every once in awhile it is revealed as a fakeout. every onc
. and mitt romney led in zero of those polls. there were two ties and obama led in 17. that's not what we were seeing two weeks ago where romney pulled ahead in virginia and colorado and florida and had drown ohio down to a one-point lead. if anything, obama has momentum. he was declared the winner of the final two debates. i'm not sure how the hurricane is playing for him, but his numbers ticked up. that's why the states that seem toss uppy seem like they are more firmly in the president's favor. >> let me ask you, and i didn't warn you i was going to ask you this, but you have been the subject of a lot of criticism in this last week in particular as if the polling model that you built at "the new york times" and the way you explain the polling is somehow biassed or wrong or evil. i feel like you are waging a one-man war against e pneumonia rossty in explaining how polling works. how has the week been? >> it's been a trip where you become a subject of conversation yourself and there's this celebrity level attached to it that's new for me e. but there are other websites that do the same t
actually makes sense. checking the facts is easy to do. look at the polls in pennsylvania. there have been two dozen polls in pennsylvania since august first. of those two dozen polls, of those 24 polls, how many does president obama lead in? 24 of the 24. every single one. and look at the rest of mr. romney's campaign schedule. he's taking the one trip to pennsylvania that republicans always take. but other than that, he was in ohio and wisconsin today. he was scheduled to be in new hampshire, iowa and colorado in the final days. and he just spent the last couple days in florida and virginia. that means the map is not expanding. no the if you can't afford to walk away from any battle ground states. he's still flogging it out where he has to win. all of this we're going to win stuff is a fake out, it's a bluff, it's trash talk. and there's nothing wrong with it. it happens every year. you should know it's a dependable part of the end of presidential campaigns. but every once in awhile at the end of a presidential campaign, this expected faint, this attempt at a fake out that everybody know
into a 2004 nail biter. look at the polls in ohio, today barack obama is almost exactly where george w. bush was in the polls in ohio 8 years ago. look at the job approval ratings, barack obama's job approval rating is almost exactly where george w. bush's approval rating is. the only thing looking better for romney at this point is obama is worse off in the polls. george w. bush had a 1.5 percentage-point lead going into election day and right now it is even. >> greta: rick what is the best thing politically that governor romney is looking at right now, when looks at this and what is the best thing politically president obama is looking at when they look at what is winding down between now and tuesday? >> romney looks at the number among independents and also looks at the possibility of building this national lead and i think closing on the economy. closing with what works for him in terms of making the argument he is the candidate of change. he has to hope for a big weekend to turn things around a little bit in terms of the close and i think president obama has to feel good about how thing
it even if the polls about even and even if obama has a lead of one or two i suspect the undecided votes are going to go to mitt romney. i have a pretty good feeling about ohio. and if he wins ohio, i think he wins and maybe president obama could feel the same way about it. this is probably the key state. >> greta: why do you all leave, ohio, and spread out across the country? why don't you all just stay in ohio if that is so important, got to get every vote there. >> because you got to make sure you win the others too. you have to make sure you win, virginia, and win colorado and win wisconsin and you win florida. florida you can't take for granted. florida is just as critical. maybe more in ohio. we all feel i think. >> greta: it looks like we have some satellite trouble. we have lost the mayor. we -- the governor, of course, you see on the screen here. just to give you sort of a heads up what has been going on in ohio today. westchester, ohio and this is supposedly one of the biggest rallies that governor romney has had as they sort of move into the closing part of this campaign. at t
. "washington post" poll, president obama leads about 51% to governor romney's 47%. back in september, the president had a stronger lead, 52% to 44% in virginia. why do you think the governor has been able to close the gap in the commonwealth? >> i think just like you see nationally and a lot of other swing states, after a first debate performance in early october for governor romney. he managed to show people kind of a different face than they had seen in a lot of negative advertisements or depicted by president obama and a lot of his allies. you've seen him gain nationally in a lot of swing states just like in virginia. the question is, have enough momentum now to put him over the top and that's kind of the question that everyone is asking themselves nine days out from the election now. >> in virginia, like other states, it can be separated in several states within a state. you've got southwest virginia, you've got hampton roads area and norfolk and the richmond area. you've got the d.c. suburbs, arlington and fairfax and alexandria. let's talk about the democratic shift there, nort
's interesting. let's talk about these state poll polls. we have new information that show obama with the lead in wisconsin, new hampshire and iowa. he has a five-point lead in ohio. you've been talking to team obama, his top officials. what do they make of these numbers? >> i was in chicago two days ago and they are supernaturally confident. >> supernaturally confident? >> yes. that's a normal place for the obama campaign, never anything other than supernaturally confident. >> overconfident? >> we'll find out. the way i would describe the obama campaign, they know their voter contacts, and if they know what they know they're going to win. if everything they know is wrong they're going to lose. and jim aceda, when i said that to him, said i was right. the romney campaign looks at these numbers and the statewide polls and the trend is still in romney's favor, closing the gender gap with women, has greater gop enthusiasm. obama campaign looks at the top line numbers and says we're going to win. romney campaign says no, uppedlying data points we find optimistic and maybe give us a path to victory
for the swing state, polls showing president obama with a razor-thing thin lead. but good news for governor romney. joining me is our panel. first, rick, the good news for the governor is with independents? >> independents. you look throughout the polls, dismacial state-level poll, governor romney is winning independent, sometimes by a lot. this is interesting for a couple of reasons, president obama won independents w ago. john kerry won among independents 8 years ago in the battleground states. so this is a big reversal. can the president lose independents that badly and still win? there is a good chance that the independents look different. a lot of them are probably republicans, calling themselves independents because they are disaffected with the party and they are tea partyers. but it is a major shift to see independents, people who call themselves independents not going for president obama. you ask the romney folks and they say, this is a sign of weakness. this says our guy is very much in the mix, despite the battlegrounds. >> greta: steve, which team would you rather be on? >> righ
polls, making news in battleground state, expanding the map into obama territory and he had to pull himself from the campaign trail and he is trying to find that argument. the momentum is gone, sapped. now, look, we have a jobs number tomorrow, the continuing questions in other quars and other ways to get back in this thing. but he lost 3 prime days, you were going to be working it and and hitting it at every stop. >> stand by, panel. extremely sensitive documents unorfed in the rubble of benghazi three weeksar after the benghazi three weeksar after the attack. if we want to improve our schools... ... what should we invest in? maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. let's build a strong foundation. let's invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. de and ♪ ♪ you can help others along the way. ♪ ♪ a portion of every bottle that they sell goes to fight ♪ ♪ breast cancer and i think that's swell. ♪ ♪ the more
voted already. the polls are showing that obama is leading the early boat much like he did in 2008. that is an aberration from our part -- previous count. from previous elections before the 2008, typically, republicans won the early voting. we have had such a high volume now and the obama campaign is encouraging their supporters to vote early. we have seen a change in behavior when campaigns can take advantage of early voting to encourage their supporters and mobilize them over a longer period of time. that is was going on on the democrat side. if you look at the numbers, there are more republicans voting early ban in 2008. the romney campaign is not conceding the early vote as the mccain campaign did in 2008. we are seeing greater interest among republicans and we see level increases of democrats and republicans compared to 2008 in early voting. up to this point, when we look at the statistics, most of the people who have voted early so far were people who are very strong partisans and have registered with their local party. in ohio, we have data where we know that people have vot
with the national average, and here's a look at the real clear politics polling average showing president obama up three points in michigan. bill ballenger is back with us now to talk about what's going on in michigan. so, bill, how do these polls compare to what we've seen over the last couple weeks? >> they're tighter. mitt romney has pulled within shouting distance of the president. this is very much like 2004, john kerry led bush by about this margin, about 3% about a week out, and john kerry actually ended up winning michigan by about that margin, but the bush campaign had kerry so worried that he came in to michigan on sunday before the election to campaign. the difference this time around is neither candidate has come to michigan personally since early summer. jenna: and, bill, that was something you brought up to us a couple weeks ago. you said, listen, it's very important that both candidates get on the ground in michigan, and neither have. what do you make of that? >> well, i don't think obama has felt he needs to get here. i think the obama campaign has been pretty confident they alread
Search Results 0 to 49 of about 110 (some duplicates have been removed)